By Pierre L Siklos
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Additional resources for War Finance, Reconstruction, Hyperinflation and Stabilization in Hungary, 1938–48
5 Though I present and use monthly data for essentially illustrative purposes, the empirical evidence reported in this study tends to rely on weekly data, a more appropriate frequency both from a theoretical as well as from a statistical perspective. 1 presents some information which allows for a comparison between Cagan's monthly series, and the one reported here, for the series consisting of the logarithm of real balances. 7 The broadest money supply measure, constructed from data in Appendix A, shows falling real balances, relative to the previous month, throughout the hyperinflation, except for the months of January, March, and May 1946.
4605 4606 4607 4604 4504 4505 4506 4507 4508 4509 4510 4511 4512 4601 4602 4603 (c) Rate of Inflation: month to month per cent change. 09 (4)k w 0 The Basic Data 31 50 per cent monthly benchmark beginning in July 1945. Since the sample is increased by a few additional observations the beginning of the hyperinflation is dated at July 1945. In general, however, dating the start of the Hungarian hyperinflation of 1945-6 is less controversial than, say, in the German case. There is considerable difficulty in measuring prices during the hyperinflation for essentially two reasons.
The considerations which prompt the use of annual or quarterly data, when analysing episodes during which aggregates may be volatile but stay within modest bounds, also suggest that the series used should be sampled at a higher frequency, such as weekly or even daily observations, when investigating an episode of hyperinflation which, in addition, is of short duration. Yet the increase in frequency also presents some difficulties. Thus, it is conceivable that there are measurement errors introduced into the compilation of weekly or daily observations.